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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still